“During this past 10 years, if anything … average world temperature has slightly declined.” Nigel Lawson, the Today programme, 11th August 2017 “We are in the end tempted to divide mankind into a minority (a minimality) of those who know how to make much of little, and a majority of those who know how to…

“Adding details to certain of the alternative future outcomes made them more probable in the minds of our respondents, even though logically the opposite must be the case” Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahnemann “In business, people want an answer quickly.  It doesn’t have to be the right answer …” Anonymous Forecasting, my day job,…