So the IPCC has issued its starkest warning yet about the state of the climate; and Boris Johnson has said that we citizens of planet Earth need to phase out coal.
In January, I predicted that as 2021 progresses, we’ll see an increasing number of net zero claims, some more spurious than others. I should also have predicted that we will see an increasing number of claims by politicians of the “We’re the climate good guys” sort.
Our government loves the mantra that Britain leads the world on decarbonisation. Yes we’ve reduced our per capita carbon footprint on a production basis. We replaced coal with natural gas and renewables in the power sector. In the case of gas, it was commercially profitable to do so – sorry, no climate brownie points. In the case of renewables, past governments (and regulators) deserve some credit for incentivising their development.
Margaret Thatcher appears to have had some concern, arguably ahead of her time, about climate change. But despite our current PM’s claim, the “dash for gas” and renewables build-out happened after her premiership. Little credit to Margaret on that score, though she might have had a hand in Sizewell B (nuclear was her favourite technology).
But do we lead the world? Not on a consumption score. Closing our industry and outsourcing emissions looks good on a production basis – but on a consumption basis the average Brit still emits more GHG into the atmosphere than the average Chinese.
In any event, whether we’re better on average, or worse on average, than the Chinese – the result depending on your chosen metric – the point surely is that we need to do everything we reasonably can. And here’s where Boris’s comments about coal are a little worrying.
Because, of course, the implication of his remarks is that we’re fine, Jack, and it’s up to other countries to follow our excellent lead. Whereas the reality is that we – in Britain – need to do far more in all sorts of ways – reducing our travel footprint, our material consumption, changing our diet, rewilding large parts of our countryside, improving the efficiency of our housing stock and changing the way that it’s heated, …
The government’s “keep calm and carry on flying” approach to climate change is environmentally reckless. Technology may – or may not – be able to rescue our residual (and unsustainably large) emissions in the post-coal era. But simply to assume that it will is nothing more than wishful thinking (something Greenpeace once accused Tony Blair of, which I mention for the sake of political balance). Which doesn’t really seem like leadership.
So please let’s not give ourselves a slap on the back just yet. If we do, then COP26 attendees will be deafened by the noise of other nations doing the same, for different and no-more-questionable reasons than our own; and further global warming will be baked in amidst the sanctimonious din of conference inaction.