“The fall in emissions within the UK is real … if we look at consumption emissions, then yes, our analysis suggests our carbon footprint has increased since 1993, as growth in imported emissions has more than offset the reduction in emissions produced within the UK” 

Committee on Climate Change website, June 2016

Visit the CCC’s website, and you are greeted on the home page with an encouraging graph.  It shows total UK greenhouse gas emissions falling from 800 MtCO2 equivalent in 1990 to 500 MtCO2 equivalent in 2015.  At this rate of reduction, we will be down to about 100 MtCO2 in 2050, as the graph shows.

There is only one snag.  It is not true.

Elsewhere on the same website, the CCC is a little more honest.  If imported emissions (emissions associated with the manufacture and transport of goods that we import and consume in the UK) are taken into account, then our national emissions have increased over the last twenty years, it admits.  And in fact, it is worse still, because national statistics do not account for international aviation.  Total air passenger numbers (UK) have roughly doubled since 1990 according to UK aviation statistics.

We believe what we want to believe

I know people at the CCC and I think they want to believe in their own efficacy.  We all do.  But the unfortunate truth is that our carbon footprint is growing not shrinking.  And this is not good news, given that (again to use CCC’s own data) the average per capita carbon footprint globally needs to fall to around 2-3 tCO2e per annum by 2050 if we are to stand any chance of averting the 2 degree C temperature increase that worries nearly all climate scientists.  Currently the average person in Britain has a footprint of 10-15 tCO2e, depending how you measure the impact of imported goods and international aviation.

We believe what we want to believe.  I am reminded of an episode in the “great debate” on Brexit a few days ago.  A leave spokeswoman claimed that 60% of our laws are made in Europe.  This was denounced as a lie by an angry remain supporter (Ruth Davidson) who produced a statistic that the correct figure was something like 10%.  Safe to say there wasn’t agreement on 60%, whatever the true figure.

After the debate, four individuals were interviewed, two from each side, all of whom thought their side had won and had thereby become more entrenched in their viewpoint.  One of the Leave supporters said he had not realised before the debate that 60% of our laws are made in Europe …

So it is with climate change.  We want to believe we are on track, that our lifestyle does not need to change, that the problem is with other countries not doing their bit (such as China, polluting the planet by making the things we consume).  And because we want to believe we are on track, we do, with remarkable tenacity in the face of the evidence.